East Idaho Real Estate – Housing Crisis 2019 Part 2
There’s so much information in the last video, I had to break it up into 2 videos. If you haven’t seen my last video that talks about the 2019 housing crash check the link in the description. In this video we are going to address the differences in today’s market vs the real crash of 2007.
Let’s pretend that YOU and I decide to land on Mars and we didn’t get permission. The reason we didn’t get permission is because scientists don’t think there is intelligent life on mars.
But let’s assume they are wrong and let’s assume there is intelligent life on Mars. And they have intergalactic space ships.
They get mad at us, jump in those spaceships and come to earth. And let’s assume they have super dooper ray guns that they can just point at a building and it disintegrates. Now. That would cause a housing crash! Sound like a good Doomsday story? That’s what people want us to believe about the HOUSING CRASH coming in 2019. Let’s put this fear to bed and address the differences in today’s market vs the real crash of 2007.
A big myth is that we are starting to see the same indicators that caused the bubble to burst back in 2007. And if you just read the headlines, I can understand why you would think that way. However, there’s more to the story when you look deeper.
Because interest rates are creeping up, people are now starting to take cash out of the equity in their homes. There’s a lot of articles and blog posts being written about CASH OUT REFINANCES. That’s what happened in 2007, people are starting to do crazy things again, we are about to see another crash. There were so many indicators that were involved in the bubble, but interest rates were never an indicator.
Ok, here’s where we need to all calm down and take a look at the numbers. When you look at 2005-2007 people took out 824 Billion dollars out of their house. Leaving them with NO equity left in their homes. Today, Tappable Equity….meaning they have to leave 20% equity in. Tappable is up 21% over the bubble numbers. Over the last 3 years, people have pulled out 172 Billion dollars of Tappable Equity. Now 172 Billion is still a large amount, but it’s less than a quarter of the equity pulled out during 2007.
In the past, people were pulling out money to buy things like motorcycles, jet skis, pay cash for cars and take that luxury vacation.
Now people are pulling the money out to do things like putting their kids through college, investing in business ideas. We are making smarter decisions. We are investing in appreciating assets, not getting out all the equity and putting it into depreciating assets like cars.
Right now 48% of the houses in this country have at least 50% equity in it. Almost one out of two houses have half their value available. If people are pulling out 10 to 30 thousand dollars to invest in a business or their kids college. That’s all good news! It’s going to make their lives, their kids lives and communities better.
I believe that EVERY family should feel confident when buying and selling a home and it’s my hope that you having a deeper understanding of the actual numbers. Not the fluff that’s behind the SCARRY, DOOMSDAY headlines that are out there.
By the way as a side note, those writers putting those headlines out there are hired to do one thing….write a headline or story that provokes an emotion and produces clicks on a webpage or YouTube channel and make money for someone else. And if you don’t know that, when you see some of these headlines and articles out there, sure it’s gonna make you feel uncomfortable about the market stability.
Still have questions about the market, don’t leave it to the Martians and their super dooper ray guns. Call me at the number below, then get packin, cause you’re moving!
***Statistics and Information from Steve Harney, KCM Founder & Chief Content Creator
East Idaho Real Estate – Housing Crisis 2019
Ok. I’m gonna take a break from the goofy videos and we’re gonna get serious about some concerns people are having about East Idaho Real Estate.
Clients have been feeling like been 2019 is the year that the next housing crisis will occur and that we are in a very obvious shift and that bring change. When change occurs, it starts to create doubt and puts us in an scary emotional state. Let’s take a look at the market and the real facts of what’s really going on nationally. Not what the guy you sat next to at the basketball game suspects.
A big question in everyone’s mind is: Does the fact that we are seeing a lot of listing price adjustments mean we are headed into another housing crash? NO…We’ve been in a market where home prices have appreciated up to 12% per year and that increase has been mostly due to lack of inventory. With the number of new builds going up, that inventory problem should be leveling out and bringing prices more into line. When this happens, people start to get nervous. What people aren’t understanding….That doesn’t mean the homes are depreciating in value, it’s more like they will just appreciate at a lower rate more like 5 to 6% per year.
Now, most people are afraid of the word “Recession”. We have to have it, our economy has been really solid and at some point, it has to level out. It’s like the guns and butter lesson we all learned in high school economics. So let’s define it. Recession means an economic slowdown. It doesn’t mean another housing CRASH. The actual definition of a recession is an economic slowdown for two straight quarters.
What is going to happen to home prices?
A study was just done that looked at the projections going into next year from 100 of the leading housing analysts. Of those 100, 94% say house is going to continue to appreciate, 2% say it will maintain the same and 4% say we’re going to depreciate slightly; SLIGHTLY bing the key word. It will still be over the historical average. If you take that same study out 5 year….there is no one calling for depreciation. Not one! That’s a good sign!
So what about the rise of interest rates, couldn’t that impact the number of housing transactions? We need to take a look at where interest rates were in the 80’s and 90’s, rates were up as high as 8 to 10%. Now, you may not be getting as good of a rate as your older brother did last year, but you’ll definitely be getting a better rate than your oldest brother got 10 years ago, your parents did 20 years ago and your grandparents did 30 years ago. And the feds have come out and said that it’s not certain that the rates will dramatically continue to climb. The National Associations of Realtors, The Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mac all project that there will be more real estate transactions in 2019 than there were in 2017. And 2017 was a great year.
So guys, now is not a time to panic. But it is a time to really focus on pricing your East Idaho Real Estate correctly ! There was a time when you could price your home at $280k when your home is really only valued at $220. Those days are GONE. It’s just not gonna happen in today’s market. But that’s a good thing. Who wants their house to sit on the market for 6 months, only to then readjust it to the price it should have been originally and then have it sell quickly. Think about what those 6 months of mortgage and utilities payments cost you. That comes right off the final sales price. More than likely you didn’t put any more money in your pocket. You just waited longer to get your money.
If you have any questions about where your home should be priced at or if you in the market to make a move….call me at the number below.
Then get packin’, cause you’re movin!
***Statistics and Information from Steve Harney, KCM Founder & Chief Content Creator
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THEN, WHEN YOU’RE READY TO MAKE A MOVE….
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Buying a home in Idaho Falls, Idaho? Selling a home in Idaho Falls, Idaho? Here’s a current list of houses for sale in Idaho Falls.
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